Thinking long term: confronting global climate change

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THINKING LONG TERM:.Confronting Global Climate Change

A hostile climate (Ice Ages) made life difficult for our ancestors

Today’s more favorable climate has supported the growth of civilization

Partly as a result of a favorable climate, humanity has grown in numbers over time

The world has grown dependent on inexpensive fossil fuels

But the burning of fuels now threatens our well being

Burning fossil fuels leads to:

Global warming enhanced by emissions of man-made gases

Much is known with certainty about global warming:

CO2 contributed most to global warming over past century

CO2 is building up in the atmosphere

Earth’s temperature continues to rise rapidly

The polar ice cap is melting

Earth is projected to grow warmer

Extreme precipitation events are becoming more common

Uncertainties still persist

More impacts of global warming.can be expected

The climate problem is a long-term problem and will require “thinking long term” to solve

Common sense goals to cope with the climate threat

We can explore energy-climate futures through “what if” scenarios ...

Criteria for a strategy to keep CO2 levels “reasonably” low

Ecologically driven scenario

Scenario assumptions related to energy demand

Recent annual energy growth rates (1987-1996)

Assumptions related to energy supply

Energy supply: The global transition to non-fossil energy

Photovoltaics (PV) produce power with no emissions or moving parts

The use of wind machines is growing rapidly around the world

Rapid growth required in the use of renewable energy sources

Rapid growth required in the use of renewable energy sources

Promising future with non-carbon energy sources

Resulting carbon dioxide emissions(1990 through 2100)

CO2 concentration in an ecologically driven future

In sum, a “thinking long term” strategy would...

National governments should support “thinking long term” strategies

National governments should support “thinking long term” strategies (continued)

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Thinking Long Term

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Author: Jim MacKenzie

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